Carneiro, A., Araújo, I., Verónico, J. (2022) Adaptable or Stuck? The Dynamics of Horizontal and Vertical Mismatch in Early Graduate Careers, Unpublished.
Abstract: This study investigates the effects of educational mismatches, vertical and horizontal, on the early career performance of graduates entering the Portuguese labour market in 2010 and 2011. Using data from Quadros de Pessoal, the study tracks 15,663 individuals over a period of 7 years. Mismatches are calculated with reference to the modal level of qualifications of a reference group. The study measures both the incidence of educational mismatches in Portugal and their effects on job mobility and wages. Effects on job mobility are measured by the estimation of a Poisson model, whereas effects on wages by the estimation of a standard Mincerian wage equation. Around 40% of recent graduates are overeducated at entry, and about 44% of those remain overeducated for the entire period. Comparing with the continuously well-matched, overeducated graduates are less likely to change jobs and experience an initial wage penalty that ranges between 7% and 14%. This wage differential persists over time. There is also an initial wage penalty for horizontally mismatched workers, but of smaller magnitude.
This study was conducted under the research project PTDC/CED-EDG/29726/2017 Skills for the Future (S4F): http://c-futuro.org/
